1990—2021年中国儿童和青少年注意缺陷多动障碍疾病负担分析与预测

Analysis and prediction of the disease burden of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in Chinese children and adolescents from 1990 to 2021

摘要:

目的 探讨中国儿童和青少年注意缺陷多动障碍（attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, ADHD）的疾病负担并预测未来负担趋势，为疾控策略提供参考。方法 基于2021年全球疾病负担数据库，对1990—2021年中国儿童和青少年ADHD疾病负担指标构建连接点回归模型与预测模型，分析并预测其变化趋势。结果 2021年中国儿童和青少年ADHD发病率、患病率和伤残调整寿命年（disability-adjusted life years, DALYs）率较1990年分别增长了41.46%、21.44%和21.75%。1990—2021年中国不同性别及不同年龄儿童和青少年的疾病负担总体呈上升趋势，男性同期疾病负担更重，5~9岁儿童同期发病率最高，10~14岁儿童同期患病率、DALYs率最高。中国儿童及青少年ADHD的发病率、患病率和DALYs率预计2031年分别达到324.88/10万、3 762.36/10万和45.85/10万。结论 中国1990—2021年儿童和青少年的ADHD发病率、患病率与DALYs率均有所上升，提示可能需要采取更加积极的防治措施以减轻儿童和青少年的ADHD疾病负担。

Abstract:

Objective To investigate the disease burden of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) among children and adolescents in China and to predict future trends, in order to provide evidence for disease control strategies.Methods Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), joinpoint regression and prediction models were constructed to analyze and forecast the trends in ADHD burden indicators among Chinese children and adolescents from 1990 to 2021.Results In 2021, the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of ADHD among children and adolescents in China increased by 41.46%, 21.44%, and 21.75%, respectively, compared to 1990. From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of ADHD showed an overall upward trend across sex and age groups, with a heavier burden among males. The highest incidence was observed in children aged 5-9 years, while the highest prevalence and DALY rates were found in those aged 10-14 years. By 2031, the incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of ADHD among Chinese children and adolescents are projected to reach 324.88 per 100 000, 3 762.36 per 100 000, and 45.85 per 100 000, respectively.Conclusions From 1990 to 2021, the incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of ADHD among children and adolescents in China have all increased, suggesting that more proactive prevention and intervention measures may be needed to alleviate the disease burden of ADHD in this population.